Election Watch : NA-248 / Karachi – X

http://karachi.metblogs.com/archives/images/2008/02/na-248-thumb.jpgElection Watch Series leads up to our tenth seat in Karachi NA-248 Karachi X. We have previously covered NA-239, NA-240, NA-241, NA-242, NA-243, NA-244, NA-245, NA-246 & NA-247, only ten more to go, will seem like an eternity to complete the entire series but I think it relevant for Karachi and if someone is planning to vote it may be fully relevant for the specific voter

The NA-248 comprises in full the Lyari area such as Agra Taj Colony, Katchi Colony, Juma Baloch Road, Naval Colony, New Kalri, Hingorabad Darayabad, Baloch Para, Liaquat Colony, Nawabad, Khadda, Memon Society, People’s Playground, Baghdadi, Shah Beg Lane, Basra Colony, Moosa Lane, Kakri Ground, Miran Naka, Mandra Mohalla, Gulistan Colony, Rangiwara, Moinabad, Hazara Colony, Punjabi Mohalla, Photo Lane, Karo Lane, Kalakot, Nabi Dad Lane, Juman Shah Plot, Sheedi Village Road, Noor Elahi Road and Gul Mohammad Lane, Chawkiwara.

The NA-248 is only the traditional seat in the city where the PPP has always defeated its rival parties. However, the results of the previous elections show that the dents appeared in the PPP vote-bank as in the 1997 election, its candidates won the seat with a margin of 300 votes against a PML-N candidate.

The Muttahida also has solid vote-bank in the Urdu-speaking areas of Lyari. but not enough to cause any form of discomfort for Nabil Gabol, with assassination of Benazir Bhutto this People’s party hub will come out in full force to support the PPP candidate of this constituency

Take the poll

Free Poll by Blog Flux2008 Elections: Total number of Registered Voters 351,345 (200,697 Male & 150,648 Female). The five candidates fighting it out are:

  1. Waseeullah Lakho (MQM)
  2. Nabeel Gabool (PPP)
  3. Shakoor Shad (PPP Naraz Group)
  4. Ibrahim Tais Advocate (MMA)
  5. Muhammad Tahir (ST)

2002 Elections: In the 2002 elections there were 225,479 Registered Voters in NA-245 of which 32.2% polled that day (72,594). The candidates were

  1. Nabeel Ahmed Gabol (PPPP) – 32424
  2. Dr. Qari Naseeruddin Sawati (MMA) – 14700
  3. Abdul Karim Nakshbandi (Sunni Tehreek) – 7882
  4. Sohrab Nizamani (MAM) – 4825

Prediction: Looking at pervious records, its quite clear that PPP will take support of the post BB sympathetic vote and yet again capture this seat in its entirety. what must be noted is the low voter turnout as compared to other seats previously convered on KMB, on average the previous ten seats (NA-239 to NA-247) have had a voter turnout of 38%, while this Lyari area shows a gloomy 32% last year. I expect this to rise due to the PPP sympathetic vote bank if for nothing else and in all likelihood this increase turnout will go towards Nabil Gabol of PPP. My guesstimate hence has PPP taking this slot, so the tally is MQM at 8 & PPP at 2 for the seats covered up till now on Karachi. Hence the predicted winner should be Nabil Gabol of PPP

5 Comments so far

  1. fahmed (unregistered) on February 13th, 2008 @ 7:22 pm

    hwy!! i checked the elction commision website and my vote is not registered!

    i urge you people to check also otherwise don’t be shocked to find ur name missing on the voting day!!

    here is the link!!

    http://search.ecp.gov.pk/

    not that i would be voting from UAE but my father got all the family registered and he also has the receipts proving that he submitted the forms.

    besides whats the use of having a computerised NIC if they can’t automatically add u to the voter list from the area mentioned on the NIC!!!!!!!!!!


  2. d0ct0r (unregistered) on February 13th, 2008 @ 9:34 pm

    FAHMED they’ve sold your data to a matrimonial site in canada ;)


  3. Jamal Shamsi (unregistered) on February 13th, 2008 @ 11:24 pm

    for the 1st time doctor u made sense !


  4. fahmed (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 11:47 am

    nice one DOCTOR saheb but this is serious!

    just check if you are registered or your data has also been sold?


  5. zee (unregistered) on February 19th, 2008 @ 6:52 am

    They will ALWAYS vote in the name of Bhutto :D



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