Election Watch : NA-249 / Karachi – XI

http://karachi.metblogs.com/archives/images/2008/02/na-249-thumb.jpgWarming up to the final ten seats of Karachi beign covered on KMB Election Watch Series we head on towards Karachi NA-249 Karachi XI. KMB Election watch has previously covered NA-239, NA-240, NA-241, NA-242, NA-243, NA-244, NA-245, NA-246, NA-247 & NA-248, the countdown has begun with 11 seats evaluated we are left with nine more, I feel the entire series is very relevant for the people of Karachi and if someone is planning to vote it may be entirely relevant for the specific voter.

The constituency comprises some important business and trading localities of the old city areas, including Kharadar, Mithadar, Boulton Market, Ranchore Lane, Dharamsiwara, Nanakwara, Napier Quarters, Ramswami and Nabi Bakhsh and Jubilee market area, Pan Mandi, and KMC stadium in Saddar Town. Some parts of Lyari Town, which include Saeedabad, Singoo Lane, Sarbazi Mohalla, Lasi Mohalla, Mundra Mohalla, Khud Basti, Bakra Piri, Allama Iqbal Colony and Usmanabad.

Jamait Ulema-e-Islam’s (JUI) Karachi chief, Shabbir Abu Talib, is contesting from NA-249, opposite Dr Farooq Sattar. Dr Sattar. JUI has negotiated an understanding with PPP and is getting full support from PPP in the National Assembly while it will in turn support the PPP candidates in both the provincial seats of PS-110 & PS-111

Till 1970s, the JUI, had been a dominating political force in the constituency. In the 1980s, ethnic polarization in the city changed the political trends in favour of the MQM, which emerged as a strong political force in the 1988 elections when Dr Farooq Sattar won the seat by securing 40,716 votes against Habib Memon of the PPP (16,028 votes). In the 1990 elections, Dr Farooq Sattar returned from here by securing 52,887 votes against the JUP chief (35,804)

However, in 1993 the PPP secured the seat after the MQM boycotted the National Assembly elections. Aziz Memon of the PPP got 23,309 votes against the PML-JUP joint candidate, Hanif Tayyab (19,439)

In the 1997 elections, Dr Farooq again returned by securing 27,711 votes against PML (N)’s Haji Mohammad Hanif Tayyab (17,333 votes). Finally in 2002 Dr. Aamir Liaqat Hussain won the seat with 30,458 votes with MMA trailing at 22,973 and PPPP at 22,708 votes

Take the poll

Free Poll by Blog Flux2008 Elections: Total number of Registered Voters 388,099 (215,210 Male & 172,889 Female). The three candidates fighting it out but it seems that PPP has withdrawn in favor of MMA. So technically its a faces off between MQM and MMA:

  1. Dr. Farooq Sattar (MQM)
  2. Shabbir Abu Talib (MMA)
  3. Abdul Habib Memon (PPP)

2002 Elections: In the 2002 elections there were 250,626 Registered Voters in NA-245 of which 34.5% polled that day (86,581). The candidates were

  1. Amir Liaquat Hussain (MQM) – 30458
  2. Abdul Majeed Noorani (MMA) – 22973
  3. Abdul Habib Memon (PPPP) – 22708
  4. M. Iftikhar Qadri (Sunni Tehreek) – 7500

Prediction: Looking at the previous set of election record in 2002 showing MQM obtaining 30,000 votes and PPP and MMA each capturing 22,000 votes, one may suspect that a combined candidate of MMA and PPP should have the umpf to uproot MQM, the PPP sympatetic vote bank can be the make or break in this constituency, but I still feel simply the name of Farooq Sattar on the ballot paper will push him closer to being victorious, shortcomings can easily be avoided since MQM is the party in power. Hence the predicted winner should be Farooq Sattar of MQM. Hence my guesstimate tally is now MQM at 9 & PPP at 2 for the seats covered up till now on Karachi.

16 Comments so far

  1. FB (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 3:34 am

    My guesstimate is that this will go to MMA candidate because last elections PPP and MMA votes combined was about 44K. Also this constituency is not entirely urdu speaking folks and MQM hasn’t shown any significant popularity amony non-urdu speaking voters.

  2. Dictator (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 4:04 am

    Is this a political website? Or a forum for only discussing politics? What have happened to KMB writers? Why aren’t they posting any other stuff related to Karachi?

  3. zee (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 4:30 am

    Teeth Maestro: Dude, you got wayyyy too much time for a dentist i.e. if you actually are a dentist but I kinda really doubt it.

  4. nuzhat (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 8:44 am

    Thank you Teeth Maestro. I think you are doing an incredible job detailing all the "halqas" in Karachi. Thanks and please dont be deterred by criticism…. there are many more appreciative people out there.

  5. Arshad Fareed (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 2:57 pm

    Teethy: keep ’em coming, these ‘KMB comment thugs’ have nothing better to do then criticize, honestly I have been quite for long. And all I see is a handful jerks using pseudonyms to hijack one post after another.

    There are many many silent readers like me who actually stay away from filth like these. I commend the KMB authors who brave this shit. Guys cut some slack, appreciate him for the work he is doing, I assure you this series has really helped many understand each election seat in Karachi – don’t think you will find any review like this, spare the coverage you get on Newspapers but there you cannot argue and debate

    If I were to voice the opinion of all silent readers of KMB – KEEP ‘EM COMING

  6. SirJee (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 9:15 pm

    I think PPP will take this seat this time.

    PPP has more sympathizers and people have seen Fazlu, JI is not in the game. So if MMA people vote for PPP, PPP will win the seat.

    GA Teetho!

  7. Hasan Mubaraj (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 9:19 pm

    @Teeth Maestro: I must say that you are doing a wonderful job covering general elections this way. It looks like heck of an effort :)

  8. pakistani (unregistered) on February 14th, 2008 @ 10:11 pm

    Hi there. Can anyone let me know whether Karachi univ announced any holiday tomorrow?

  9. Reality_check (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 1:09 am

    PAKISTANI check out the news section at University of Karachi Website;


  10. JAWED MEMON (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 2:04 am

    your election watch is not giving the real details. I belong to this constituency and there are only two main candidates Abdul Habib Memon and Dr. Farooq Sattar. MMA and all other opposition has supported Abdul Habib Memon.

  11. zee (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 2:59 am

    Excuse me but haven’t MMA already boycotted the elections?

  12. bluemax (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 4:10 am

    Zee, JUI (FazlurRehman) is contesting as MMA with the same symbol (book). JUP, JI, and JUI (SamiulHaq) have decided to boycott.

  13. bluemax (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 4:28 am

    I dont agree with the prediction … "predicted winner should be Farooq Sattar of MQM".

    I think this seat will be a tough one for MQM this time around. Sunni Tehrik and JUP supporters may vote for PPP.

  14. bluemax (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 4:38 am

    Btw, one correction … Shabbir Abu Talib belongs to JUP not to JUI as mentioned in the post.
    Ref: http://www.dawn.com/2007/11/27/local1.htm

  15. Sam (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 12:12 pm

    I think Shabbir will not part in the election because yesterday JUP decided to boycott.

  16. Sam (unregistered) on February 15th, 2008 @ 12:14 pm

    I think Shabbir won’t part in the election because yesterday JUP has decided to boycott

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